Target Trial Emulation Using Whole Systems Integrated Care Data to Access Safety and Outcomes of GLP-1 Agonists for Obesity Management

This project will generate high-quality real-world evidence on the effectiveness and safety of Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) in a routine NHS setting, providing supplementary evidence to that generated by randomised controlled trials to inform clinical practice. In addition, it will provide some insight into the quality and completeness of coding within the GP systems for these drugs. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications in high-impact journals and presentations at national and international conferences. Methodologically, the study enhances expertise in applying state-of-the-art causal inference approaches (target trial emulation) to routinely collected NHS data, while building capability in pharmacoepidemiology and advanced analysis of observational data. The development of a reproducible analytic pipeline will provide a scalable framework for future real-world evidence studies. Outputs will be directly relevant to the NHS and NICE appraisals, supporting health technology assessment and long-term cost-effectiveness modelling, and will help inform post-marketing surveillance and risk–benefit evaluation. The project will also further demonstrate the strategic value of WSIC/Discover Now as a platform for rigorous, relevant, high-impact Version 1.5 – October 2025 Page 7 of 30 research and will strengthen future funding applications by demonstrating the capacity to generate high-impact, methodologically rigorous research.